Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
